As every year, here are our core assumptions on macro scenarios which will underly corporate strategic options.
Let us have a dream. With efficient and swift vaccination campaigns, a recovery in 2021 is confirmed. This recovery is uneven. China beacons from afar with 8% growth in 2021 on top of 2% growth in 2020. Overall, fast-growing markets finish 2021 with a GDP 4% above 2019. The USA finishes 3% above 2019. Europe does not recover before 2022 at the earliest.
In this dream, the crisis already waves from a distance. Some countries and corporations move out stronger from the crisis. Others are strongly weakened. The world embarks on the next decade and beyond. What does it look like?